The Euro would like to recover
04.09.2015
On Friday afternoon, the main currency pair is attempting to grow, but the package of American statistics is ahead, so there are very few chances for strengthening.
The Euro will be able to strengthen only if the statistics from the USA is weaker than predicted. The market is counting a lot that the unemployment rate is August will decrease to 5.3% and the NFP increase up to 220 thousand. These numbers would show that the employment sector is steadily improving its numbers, thus allowing the Federal Reserve to increase the interest rate.
Yesterday another meeting of the ECB took place. Just as expected, the interest rate hasn’t been changed: the time to review it won’t come very soon. Judging by the comments after the meeting, the regulator has left enough space for stimulating actions if necessary. QE program was launched this spring; its monthly volume is 60 billion Euros. The program is set to last a year and a half, but this period can be extended.
By the way, this time the ECB has worsened its expectations concerning inflation. The target of the CPI index is 2% per annum, but this number is far away right now.
However, the markets already knew everything that was told by the European regulator. It would be interesting to assess the effectiveness of the QE, because the period of the program is long enough to see the results. The ECB is in no hurry to provide proofs that the stimulation program is particularly effective.
The main currency pair isn’t trading very actively right now – the market is gathering strengths before the evening statistics. In the evening, the currency market is going to be highly volatile.
RoboForex Analytical Department
The Euro will be able to strengthen only if the statistics from the USA is weaker than predicted. The market is counting a lot that the unemployment rate is August will decrease to 5.3% and the NFP increase up to 220 thousand. These numbers would show that the employment sector is steadily improving its numbers, thus allowing the Federal Reserve to increase the interest rate.
Yesterday another meeting of the ECB took place. Just as expected, the interest rate hasn’t been changed: the time to review it won’t come very soon. Judging by the comments after the meeting, the regulator has left enough space for stimulating actions if necessary. QE program was launched this spring; its monthly volume is 60 billion Euros. The program is set to last a year and a half, but this period can be extended.
By the way, this time the ECB has worsened its expectations concerning inflation. The target of the CPI index is 2% per annum, but this number is far away right now.
However, the markets already knew everything that was told by the European regulator. It would be interesting to assess the effectiveness of the QE, because the period of the program is long enough to see the results. The ECB is in no hurry to provide proofs that the stimulation program is particularly effective.
The main currency pair isn’t trading very actively right now – the market is gathering strengths before the evening statistics. In the evening, the currency market is going to be highly volatile.
RoboForex Analytical Department
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.